Mastercard's Recorded Future Deal Furthers Its AI Security Goals

The largest credit-card providers have made sizeable investments in advanced cybersecurity capabilities in recent years, but Mastercard is upping the ante with last week's agreement to buy Recorded Future from Insight Partners for $2.65 billion.

The deal, scheduled to close in the first quarter of 2025, would mark the second-largest acquisition in Mastercard's 58-year history. The price tag also nearly equals the $3 billion Mastercard is estimated to have previously spent on nine cybersecurity-related companies since launching its cybersecurity business unit in 2017, Strategy of Security analyst Cole Grolmus wrote on LinkedIn.

Recorded Future says it has 1,900 customers worldwide, including governments and half of the Fortune 100. According to a recent Frost & Sullivan report, the Recorded Future Intelligence Cloud hosts one of the largest threat repositories in the world. Recorded Future's Collective Insights integrates broadly with governance, risk, and compliance; third-party risk management; attack surface management; and other analytics tools, a May 2024 Forrester Research report noted.

"Combining Recorded Future's threat intelligence capabilities with Mastercard's extensive insight and knowledge of and partnership with merchants and financial institutions should provide greater protection to digital payment transactions," says Forrester principal research analyst Brian Wrozek. "This also gives Mastercard more direct control over a critical cybersecurity capability: threat intelligence."

Last year, Recorded Future added OpenAI's GPT model to the threat intelligence platform to enhance its real-time analytics capabilities. Using the pretrained transformer model, Recorded Future AI includes 10 years of threat analysis from its Insikt Group threat research subsidiary, which is integrated with the Recorded Future Intelligence Graph.

Expanding Threat Intelligence Capabilities

Mastercard has been investing in threat and risk intelligence capabilities for over a decade. In 2014, Mastercard launched SafetyNet, a tool to detect risks based on activity throughout its network. SafetyNet thwarted $20 billion in fraud attempts directed at its network in 2023, says Johan Gerber, Mastercard's EVP of security solutions.

"It's our AI-enabled Decision Intelligence [solution] that provides a score to banks, helping them identify and stop fraudulent transactions," he says.

Last year, Mastercard added AI-based risk management capabilities by acquiring Baffin Bay Networks, a threat protection provider based in Sweden. Mastercard integrated Baffin Bay's automated threat protection service to prevent attackers from penetrating or disabling cybersecurity systems through ransomware and distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks.

Mastercard is not alone in its focus on threat and risk intelligence. Visa has invested more than $9 billion in cybersecurity over the past few years in new tools and services to help address fraud and account security in its payment services. The credit card company has embedded AI and analytics in more than 60 different services to stop and block payment fraud. The Visa Account Attack Intelligence (VAAI) offering uses generative AI components to identify and score enumeration attacks. The VAAI Score tool assigns each transaction with a risk score in real time to detect and prevent enumeration attacks in card-not-present transactions.

Building on Mastercard's AI Capabilities

Gerber says Recorded Future promises to build on Mastercard's AI-enabled Decision Intelligence capability, which gives scores to its member banks.

"Recorded Future has pioneered the use of AI in analyzing and reporting cyber threat intelligence," he says. "The ability to draw these trends from a wide range of sources will allow our customers to quickly access relevant insights and safeguard their critical operations and infrastructure. It allows us to quantify risk more accurately and simulate attacks based on the latest trends."

Gerber also sees the potential for adding Recorded Future's AI capabilities to RiskRecon, the third-party threat scanning and rating provider Mastercard acquired in 2020 that provides enterprise security monitoring and measures third-party and supply chain risk. Similarly, Recorded Future can boost two Mastercard service offerings launched in 2022: Cyber Front, which provides a threat simulation, and Cyber Quant, a service that identifies and prioritizes risks.

"The insights allow us to quantify risk more accurately," Gerber says. "Our customers will see benefits from the real-time threat insights that Recorded Future brings to the table."

Recorded Future will enhance the intelligence and security of all its products, he adds.

"It will help us create smarter models and anticipate emerging threats before cyberattacks can take place — in payments and beyond," Gerber notes.

Forrester's Wrozek says that Recorded Future promises to give Mastercard more direct control over critical threat intelligence, now a critical cybersecurity capability.

"This aligns perfectly with Mastercard's journey towards leading the defense of the global digital economy," he says.

Citing a 2024 Forrester survey, Wrozek notes that improving threat intelligence capabilities is consistently a top tactical security priority for companies, which typically purchase, on average, over half a dozen threat intelligence feeds.

"Companies need more threat intelligence to improve decision-making, expedite incident remediation, and shift from a reactive to a more proactive security posture," he says.