For Hackers, 2011 Looks Like A Prosperous New YearFor Hackers, 2011 Looks Like A Prosperous New Year

In life, it's said, there are a few things that are certain. April will bring the tax bill; July will bring the fireworks; September will bring the school bus. And if you're an editor at an IT security publication, there's one more: December will bring cyberthreat predictions for the new year.

Each year, we at Dark Reading are inundated by dozens of predictions from security vendors, researchers, and analysts, all of whom hope to be the first to warn enterprises about the attacks and exploits they should expect in the coming months. And each year, we're compelled to share some of those predictions with you, dear reader. We don't wanna do it. But it's the law.

And so, we present -- kicking and screaming -- five threat trends you should beware of in 2011. Read it carefully and nobody gets hurt.

1. Social networks will be a chief target for new exploits.
"With the growth of social networks, banks are getting on the bandwagon and using these networks to cater to their customers," says Internet Identity (IID), an Internet security firm, in its predictions blog. "But beware: there will be fakes that will utilize social networking sites like Twitter and Facebook to try to infect victims with malware and trick people into giving up their vital personal information like bank logins and social security numbers."

"As the use of social media web sites continues to grow, drive-by-downloads and rogue anti-virus will be used more aggressively on platforms such as Facebook and Twitter," says Dasient, a security service provider that specializes in malware defense. "This is evidenced by threats such as the Koobface botnet that continually targets Facebook, as well as the September XSS attack that targeted Twitter and redirected users to porn and malware sites."

2. When they aren't targeting social networks, the bad guys will be after your mobile device.
"While most hackers heavily focused on Nokia's mobile phones [in 2010], mobile malware will increasingly target non-Nokia devices including Apple, Blackberry, Android, and Microsoft," says a report from ICSA Labs, which does certification testing for security products. "Mobile malware -- which is currently very localized to Russia, where premium SMS is available -- will start becoming more prevalent in other regions as well. Additionally, malware will increasingly target mobile devices, such as smart phones, iPads, and other tablets with built-in Wi-Fi."

"The arrival of consumer devices in the corporate network environment is changing the way we think about security the corporate backbone," says Adam Powers, CTO of Lancope, whose technology identifies security problems by analyzing network behavior. "Perimeter-based defenses, such as firewalls and IPS, aren't enough anymore. Corporations must think about how they will deal withsmart phones, WiFi devices, and other consumer-oriented mobile devices."

3. Malware will become more complex, combining multiple exploits and attack techniques.
"One of the most threatening advances in malware during 2010 broadened the range of targets beyond PCs and servers when the Stuxnet Trojan attacked programmable logic controllers," says security vendor Symantec in its 2011 predictions blog. "This specialized malware written to exploit physical infrastructures will continue in 2011, driven by the huge sums of money available to criminal enterprises at low risk of prosecution. These attacks will range from the obvious targets like smartphones to any number of less obvious, yet critical systems like power grid controls or electronic voting systems. Any technology that can be exploited for financial gain."

"Stuxnet clones will be rampant in 2011, but the real threats will be far more dangerous and sophisticated," says Toney Jennings, president and CEO of CoreTrace, a maker of application whitelisting tools. "Stuxnet was too public, too easily discovered, and reverse-engineered. From my days in the trenches at the Air Force Information Warfare Center, I feel it in my bones that Stuxnet was a 'grenade,' and that there are digital bombs out there that are far more powerful and dangerous."

NEXT: Predictions 4 & 5 4. The exposure of sensitive information via WikiLeaks will shine a new light on the potential for insider data leaks
"Look for WikiLeaks to expand well beyond simply embarrassing governments and begin releasing data that will cause harm to big business reputations as well," says Paul Henry, a security analyst at Lumension. "With the pressure put on employees -- and the ill feeling many hold against employers in these tough economic times -- WikiLeaks could become first choice for releasing tension."

While some experts suggest that WikiLeaks could be a boon for data leak prevention (DLP) technology in 2011, Andrew Jaquith, CTO of Perimeter eSecurity and a former industry analyst, notes that DLP wouldn't have prevented the WikiLeaks data breaches. "Tools like DLP that inspect content are fine for filtering 'toxic data' like credit card numbers, but less effective for controlling the spread of secrets," he says. "Traffic monitoring and regular privilege reviews would have been more effective."

5. Politics will join money as a key motivator for attacks in 2011.
In 2010, the industry saw rapid growth of politically motivated distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks, such as Operation Payback, which sought retribution against sites that were critical of the WikiLeaks organization. "Traditional political hacktivism attempts have been conducted by small, well coordinated groups," notes security vendor Zscaler in its 2011 predictions blog. "But now, we find ourselves in an era where complete strangers can quickly organize, coordinate and attack -- and do so with relative anonymity. Welcome to the world of flash mob hacktivism!"

Nation-states will also launch more cyberattacks in 2011, says Amichai Shulman, CTO of database security vendor Imperva. "Nation-sponsored hacking -- specifically-targeted cyberattacks -- will incorporate concepts and techniques from the commercial hacker industry," Shulman says. "These campaigns will contain a different malware payload than the traditional attacks conducted for monetary gain. However, these attacks will use similar techniques. These advanced persistent threat [APT] attacks will borrow techniques, such as automation and viral distribution, making them all the more powerful and potentially more successful."

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