These things don't always happen when we first expect them. But we can see the trend lines: more criminals are turning to cybercrime to steal, snoop, and destroy; and smartphones are growing exponentially in processing and storage power. We're also starting to see smartphones with more open, generative platforms, such as Google's Android.
It's a safe bet to predict these two trend lines will cross, and criminals will turn to mobile phones to conduct all of the types of crimes they do on PCs and the Internet today. Predicting exactly when this will happen: not so easy.
Researchers contributing to Georgia Tech's Emerging Cyber Threats Report for 2009: Data, Mobility, and Questions of Responsibility Will Drive Cyber Threats in 2009 And Beyond, see the risks.
The comments below, from the report, are from Patrick Traynor assistant professor at the School of Computer Science at Georgia Tech:
According to Traynor, "malware will be injected onto cell phones to turn them into bots. Large cellular botnets could then be used to perpetrate a DoS attack against the core of the cellular network. But because the mobile communications field is evolving so quickly, it presents a unique opportunity to design security properly -- an opportunity we missed with the PC."
Traynor pointed out that most people buy a new mobile device every two years -- a much shorter life cycle than the typical PC and Windows installation, which is closer to 10 years.
"The short life cycle of mobile devices gives manufacturers, developers, and the security community an opportunity to learn what works from a security standpoint and apply it to devices and applications more quickly," said Traynor. "However, it is not going to be an easy problem to solve."
Tom Cross, X-Force Researcher with IBM Internet Security Systems, along with Traynor, cites Google's Android -- because of it's openness, it makes it easier for security vendors to build defenses for the device. On that, I agree. However, it also makes it much easier for malware authors, as well. Which means we'll be in the same PC security arms race we've experienced for more than 20 years now.
The ultimate solution is what both Traynor and Cross stated in their closing thought: a layered approach to security on mobile devices that encompasses carriers, manufacturers, and application developers.
That type of industry security synergy is exactly the best shot we have at ensuring smart phones don't become the battleground we're now fighting on PCs and corporate networks.
It's also expensive and difficult to get all of these constituents to work so closely together.
It may happen. But my prediction is that it's going to take a significantly enough nasty event for the industry to come together that tightly over security concerns.
Check out the Georgia Tech's Emerging Cyber Threats Report for 2009, available here.