A global recession is almost a certainty — the impact on hiring is likely to be devastating, so where does this leave cybersecurity? Let's look at some of the factors that can help us make an educated prediction.
The Current Threat Landscape
Globally, there has been a significant increase in ransomware, fake COVID-19 apps, and targeted phishing scams. The current state of fear and uncertainty provides an ideal breeding ground for those with malicious intent. Working from home has become the new norm and an attractive proposition for opportunists. We have seen targeted hacking campaigns aimed at specific industries in both the public and private sectors, in turn leading to increased ransomware — in some cases, a 4,000% increase, as cited in the Canadian press.
Surprisingly, some industries are seeing growth while others are struggling, and their survival is questionable. Registered jobs on LinkedIn grew 6.9% year-on-year within the logistics and transportation sector. We have also seen growth in technology firms (hardware and networking) as well as healthcare. The list of industries suffering is vast and includes aviation, car manufacturing, and hospitality/events services.
Overall, security practitioners find themselves in a better working situation than many other professionals; however, we are not immune. Security is often industry-aligned, and as one CISO told me after his funding was slashed as a result of COVID-19, "Owanate, what's the point of spending on staffing security, if, in the end, we have nothing to secure?" This serves as a bleak reminder that the journey of a cybersecurity professional in the commercial aviation sector is far removed from a security professional in the healthcare sector. One size does not fit all.
Consultancies and managed service providers that have the versatility to change their industry sector may be best served to align with growth industries that are likely to increase hiring to fulfil demand.
Legislation & GDPR Governance
Companies are still obliged to meet regulatory and legislative requirements. However, for now, we have seen a more relaxed approach from the UK's Information Commissioner's Office (ICO) in line with GDPR regulations, which states: “We won't penalize organizations that we know need to prioritize other areas or adapt their usual approach during this extraordinary period. "The ICO has even deferred fines for incidents that occurred in 2018: £183 million for British Airways and £99 million for Marriott International. Furthermore, we expect to see privacy laws in proposals around facial recognition, COVID-19 tracking apps, and other controversial initiatives relaxed. Additionally, a significant percentage of security hiring during 2018 and 2019 was in response to GDPR legislation, so it is logical to suspect that firms may take their foot off the gas, demoting data protection compliance in the knowledge that the authorizing body will take a more relaxed approach.
Overall, I have seen relatively little uptake of furloughing staff within security. With cybercrime more profitable than the global illegal drug trade, firms have an incentive to pay accordingly for the best talent. Many governments are issuing caps on furlough pay. In most cases, the furlough cap would not come close to the salary levels for midlevel to senior security professionals.
Cybersecurity Staffing Futures
Firms are facing demands to respond to the significantly increased threat landscape. There is also the ongoing obligation to meet industry standards and legislation, even with a relaxed GDPR approach. This increased pressure on security, as well as risk management departments, is likely to translate into an industry-aligned increase in head count. To enable firms to provide a rapid response, additional head count will take the form of contractors and consultants. Executives will expect a swift return on investment and are likely to turn to "hired guns" to fight the initial fires and implement new frameworks and policies where appropriate. They are also likely to prioritize this over hiring permanent personnel, particularly struggling firms that are still bombarded with threats.
Professional businesses at this time must work remotely, for good reason. While not without its challenges, remote working is nothing new for cybersecurity professionals and policies are in place. However, even the staunchest business continuity policies are stress-tested at this time. In addition, you should expect more funding and emphasis on business continuity and operational resilience moving forward.
COVID-19 will prove a catalyst for those firms that have not implemented or formed a digital transformation initiative. This cannot be accomplished without cybersecurity staff — expect gradual growth in this area. A whole essay could be written on this topic alone. We can also assume that the need for robust, flexible, and efficient security protocols will be greater than ever. The current climate of confusion, uncertainty, and fear will continue to provide a breeding ground for exploiters. Hence, at a time when cost-cutting seems a prudent and logical step, prudence must be weighed against the risk associated with underfunding security.
The bad news: I foresee a stagnation in security hiring for the time being. But with the ever-growing need to protect assets, the commercial requirement to move to digital and the increasing need for operational resilience, a rise in cybersecurity hiring is surely inevitable.
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