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The Problem With Cyber Insurance
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User Rank: Apprentice
7/16/2014 | 8:02:01 AM
Check out FAIR
There is an exiting risk quantification framework called FAIR (factor analysis of information risk) which is available from the Open Group.  This framefwork provides a consistent and objective framework for quantifying cyber / information risk.  There is a vendor that offers software based on FAIR (CXOWARE) that does a credible job of quantifying risk.  Might be something worth looking into.
User Rank: Apprentice
6/25/2014 | 7:20:28 PM
Design for Actuarial Proxies and Underwriting Schema for Cyber Risk Already In Hand

Method, system, and service for quantifying network risk to price insurance premiums and bonds

United States 8494955

Issued July 23, 2013

A method for determining financial loss related to performance of an internetwork, comprising: collecting input information regarding performance of an internetwork usingtechniques that simultaneously record topology and performance; detecting at least one anomaly in at least one portion of said internetwork; translating said at least one anomaly into at least one operational risk for a financial entity thatunderwrites insurance premiums and bonds by: adding information about a first plurality of enterprises in an industry; estimating a total cost for said industry for said plurality of anomalies; and, determining respective costs for claims on insurance policies for said industry based on said total cost; or, interrogating at least a portion of the network topology; making estimates of internetwork conditions at the time of an anomaly resulting in a loss; and, calibrating a disbursement against acovered party's claims with respect to the at least one anomaly.

Problem solved.


Marilyn Cohodas
Marilyn Cohodas,
User Rank: Strategist
6/24/2014 | 8:25:17 AM
Re: unknown unknowns
This has been a fascinating thread with a lot of excellent points about the challenges of calcuating cyber security risk from an actuarial point of view versus the traditional cost/benefit, risk management perspective of an enterprise security team. Can there be objective, evidenced-based risk metrics in world of "unknown unknowns" that will offer organizations some additional protection in the even of a breach?  I hope so. But for the young cyber-insurance industry a lot remains to be seen. 
User Rank: Strategist
6/23/2014 | 10:18:35 PM
unknown unknowns
Underwriters have nominally avoided acts of war as legitimate risk opportunities, at least those operating with statistical evidence.  I cant imagine this market surviving given what we know about the origin of cyber attacks & PII compromise, etc.  Nature can be devastating but at least predictable.  These events will by nature continue to evolve as genuine gambling.  Perhaps both sides would be better off spending resources elsewhere.  Of course this will all go away when totally secure systems become available.  At that point cyber insurance will become irrelevant.
User Rank: Strategist
6/20/2014 | 10:18:30 PM
Re: The Problem With Cyber Insurance
Good comments Brian. I totally agree with your synopsis. CI is in its infancy and may take some time to mature.

Many CI carriers are unable to ascertain the value of data loss and what the compromised data may be. 

CI should not be seen as the panacea, but merely form a part of any good risk transfer/mitigation strategy.

Randy Naramore
Randy Naramore,
User Rank: Ninja
6/18/2014 | 12:55:59 PM
Re: High premiums, low coverage, & broad exclusions. Oh my!.
While I see how the idea of cyber insurance is attractive to anyone who is concerned with the possiblility of breach, it is a false sense of security. If you follow defense in depth approach to security and make sure employees are educated to the dangers of the internet then you are doing all you can to "insure" yourself and even then you might be breached. IMO.
Robert McDougal
Robert McDougal,
User Rank: Ninja
6/18/2014 | 12:33:50 PM
Re: High premiums, low coverage, & broad exclusions. Oh my!.
I agree, I don't see how this type of insurance will be anything more than a paper shield.  Basically, any company that does business on the internet can fall prey to a currently undiscovered vulnerability (think heartbleed).  Those companies could do everything within their power securely and still experience a breach.  In short, what I am pointing out is that there isn't a low risk group to offset the losses of the high risk group, making this coverage ultimately unsustainable.
Brian Thornton
Brian Thornton,
User Rank: Apprentice
6/18/2014 | 6:46:25 AM
The Problem With Cyber Insurance
While there are plenty of good reasons to improve the evidence-based method to assess a company's cyber risk profile, I take issue with the statement, "This has resulted in high premiums, low coverage, and broad exclusions."

Rates are driven by loss ratios and suply and demand.  Over the last few years there have been many new markets entering the cyber insurnace world resulting in more competition and broader terms then just a year ago, especially for the smaller and mid-sized companies.  

This market is still in its infancy.  Compared to other lines of business there is a very low correlation to the insured's amount of data and how they protect it and their loss ratio.  The best risk can still easily have a bad loss and the worst risks can go clear for a long time.

As the market matures, this will become less of an issue.  I do agree that data collection in the underwriting process can provide a good basis long term risk comparison across a carrier's portfolio.  Things will no doubt move in that direction, but saying the lack of this in the industry has resulted in high premiums, low coverge, and broad exclusions is just not accurate.  Coverage has become broader and more competitive every year the product has evolved.

The insurance is part of an overall risk management process.  It starts with IT and involves senior management, education of the entire staff, and building an overall awareness of the exposures – ending with a component of risk transfer.  There are plenty of lower risk accounts that have less data and very good policies and procedures to balance out the higher risk accounts and a lot of carriers to share in the risk.  A comment that this insurance is unsustainable is ill informed.  Heartbleed has not resulted in any material impact as far as cyber insurance goes.
User Rank: Ninja
6/17/2014 | 6:17:05 PM
Re: High premiums, low coverage, & broad exclusions. Oh my!.
Also not filling me with the warm fuzzies, and as a mid-level engineer, I don't even have to worry about this type of analysis.  But, as someone in the trenches, I can see where this could go very wrong very quickly if not tightened up and regulated. 

Because "acts of God" are so unpredictable, it makes insurance on property difficult, but still doable with quantifiable damages and some level of predictability for some regions where earthquakes, tornados and typhoons occur with some certainty.  But how do you even begin to fully quantify the mind of a cyber criminal and what they might do, how they might do it, and what economic damage it will equate to?

For instance, how do you value 100,000 credit card numbers stolen?  What if the data includes more than just the numbers?  What if the criminal isn't interested in the numbers at all, but some other data?  What if the whole theft is a cover so someone doesn't realize the spending habits of a certain senator were what the target was all along?

And if you think people are getting ripped off now by life and property insurance scams, imagine the doors this opens...

Marilyn Cohodas
Marilyn Cohodas,
User Rank: Strategist
6/17/2014 | 1:49:26 PM
High premiums, low coverage, & broad exclusions. Oh my!.
This doesn't seem like a very attractive solution -- at least for now. Ira, are there any circumstances where you think cyber insurance is a good idea? Or should companies wait until the cyber insurance market matures and canbegins offering some more comprehensive and affordable packages?

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